What to Watch on America's Election Day: Key Contests, Senate Battles, and Election Day Mirages

The United States faces a pivotal Election Day that could reshape the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie for control of swing states that could decide the presidency, while critical referendums and Senate seats are also up for grabs. Anticipated "mirages" in early reporting, changes in mail-in voting rules, and potential challenges to results make this election uniquely uncertain.

Election Day in the U.S.: Key Races, Potential Senate Shifts, and Result Delays

Decision Day has arrived in America, marking a critical moment for the White House and Congress. In the battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the fate of seven pivotal states may shape the presidency. The race includes both the Great Lakes' "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — which Trump won in 2016 but Biden claimed in 2020 — and Sun Belt battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

A victory for Harris would break historic ground, making her the first woman, Black woman, and Asian American to assume the presidency. A Trump win would also be unprecedented, marking him as one of only two U.S. presidents, alongside Grover Cleveland, to serve non-consecutive terms — and he’d return as the only president with two impeachments and a felony conviction on record.

Alongside the presidency, major state ballot initiatives are also in focus. Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota are voting on measures to overturn abortion bans, a hot-button issue with national implications. Meanwhile, Republicans are eyeing Senate control, as Democrats are defending seats in GOP-leaning states such as Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.

Initial results from various states may not reveal definitive winners in the presidential race. States have diverse voting procedures and vary in how they count early, mail-in, and Election Day ballots. Notably, delays in counting in key cities and regions could affect how early results are interpreted, potentially leading to what analysts call “mirages” — misleading early leads in either direction.

Both Harris and Trump face complex but clear pathways to the required 270 electoral votes. For Harris, securing the "blue wall" states and a handful of Sun Belt territories could lead to victory, with Pennsylvania being a crucial win. Without Pennsylvania, Harris would need to win either Georgia or North Carolina, possibly with added wins in Nevada or Arizona. For Trump, retaining Pennsylvania and North Carolina could suffice if he wins in Georgia as well. Should he lose Pennsylvania, Trump would need to gain traction in Michigan, Wisconsin, and other Sun Belt states.

Election night may feature "red" or "blue" mirages due to variances in counting processes. With rural Republican areas often reporting earlier and urban Democratic strongholds later, early leads could shift dramatically. Changes in voting rules since 2020 could also influence timelines. For instance, Georgia's new laws mean fewer mail-in votes and faster results, while North Carolina no longer accepts mail-in ballots after Election Day, potentially creating a "blue mirage."
 

Smaller races, particularly House contests in traditionally blue states, may offer early hints about broader trends. Virginia, usually one of the first states to report, could indicate national dynamics. In 2016, unexpected tightness in Virginia hinted at Hillary Clinton's struggles. This year, key districts in New York, which saw a Republican surge in 2022, could be similarly revealing. House races outside New York City and on Long Island may signal voter leanings, and some districts in central New York and New Jersey could suggest Democratic resilience.

Republicans are aiming to regain Senate control by winning seats in states where Democrats are on the defensive. With the Senate currently split by a slim majority, West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are likely battlegrounds. Republicans need only to flip one of these seats to gain the majority if they win the White House. Unexpectedly close races in states like Texas, with Rep. Colin Allred challenging Sen. Ted Cruz, could signal a shift, though Democrats have struggled to win statewide in Texas.

With Republicans holding a narrow majority in the House, Democrats need only gain four seats to flip control. Districts in swing states like California, New York, and New Jersey could decide the outcome, with Democratic efforts focused on reclaiming seats lost in 2022. Notably, New Jersey’s 7th District, held by GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., has become unexpectedly competitive. Early Democratic victories in contested districts could indicate momentum for a House flip.

Trump has reiterated claims of election fraud, casting doubt on the legitimacy of mail-in ballots and early results. While Trump has called for early results to determine the winner, delays in processing mail-in ballots mean that a full count may take days in states like California and New York. Swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where mail-in ballots are processed slowly, remain particularly vulnerable to misinformation.

Despite Trump’s warnings, most battleground states have clear guidelines on mail-in ballot deadlines, with results to be finalized in the days following the election. Both campaigns are preparing for potential challenges or claims of fraud, particularly in states with delayed results.