In a rally speech in Virginia, former President Donald Trump stated that Republicans face a considerable challenge in winning the national popular vote, citing the strong Democratic base in key states as a major factor. Trump urged Republicans to turn out to vote on Tuesday, expressing his desire to "win everything," including the popular vote. However, he noted that the heavy Democratic tilt in populous states like California, New York, and Illinois makes achieving this difficult.

“When you have New York, Illinois, and California, it’s almost automatic for Democrats; they’re three big states,” Trump explained. He referenced the advantage Democrats hold in the popular vote, which has given them victories in five of the last six presidential elections since 2000, though Republicans have succeeded in the Electoral College three times during that period.

Trump, who lost the popular vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, nevertheless claimed that polls suggest he is currently leading. He repeated his allegations of voter fraud that he believes impacted his loss in 2020. “I’d love to win the popular vote even with them cheating. They’re professional at it, but I think we have a strong chance,” he commented, implying that he could overcome perceived obstacles.

The U.S. presidential election system relies on candidates securing a majority of the 270 Electoral College votes rather than winning the popular vote outright, a dynamic that has recently favored Republicans. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two percentage points but lost the Electoral College narrowly. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by a larger margin of 4.5 points yet only achieved a narrow Electoral College victory.

Some experts have suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris, if nominated, might see a reduced popular vote advantage compared to past Democratic candidates. Changes in the electorate may have boosted Republican popular vote margins, though these gains don't necessarily translate into Electoral College victories.

Trump’s Virginia rally is one of several appearances he plans to make in Democratic-leaning states that are expected to support Harris.